"It sounds like science-fiction."
The remark is frequently a put-down, albeit a mild and sometimes unintended one. It implies pie-in-the-sky dreaming, a step away from reality. Anyone attempting a technological leap or innovative application of science can expect to hear it.
Technology entrepreneurs in need of funding understandably eschew such an image. They dress their ideas in practical language. Apply their products to markets in the here and now. Try not to say anything that will elicit giggles from scoffing financiers. They frequently walk a tightrope between sounding realistic and sounding inventive. And every once in a while, the fickle hand of fate reaches down and yanks that tightrope.
Kelly Space & Technology Inc. in San Bernardino provides a stellar example. The company early on nabbed a practical contract with a respectable corporation for what seemed like a reliable project, signing an $89 million deal with Motorola Inc. in 1996. The deal – which called for Kelly Space to replace satellites in the Iridium LLC telecommunications system using its Astroliner, a reusable space plane yet to be built – gave the fledgling firm tremendous credibility in aerospace circles.
But the deal lost much of its luster this month when Iridium filed for bankruptcy protection. Industry observers continue to debate whether Iridium will survive at all.
At the same time Kelly Space founder Michael Kelly was talking satellites and government contracts, he tended to avoid more speculative topics like zero-gravity vacations, space tourism and orbital hotels, resorts and colonies.
But this year, those ideas appear to have become increasingly acceptable. Whether it's due to millennial daydreams or expectations from 30 years ago that have gone unfulfilled, the notion of outer space as a vacation destination seems to be gaining credibility at a rapid rate. The topic has been addressed on an almost daily basis in television and print media over the past three months:
· Virgin Enterprises Chairman Richard Branson has paid visits to Rotary Rocket Inc., a Kelly Space rival, as a potential investor and would-be passenger.
· According to Forbes, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and First USA have all made reservations for trips into space with various space industry contenders, planning to offer the trips as contest prizes.
· The Space Transport Association has appraised the space tourism market at $10 billion to $20 billion within a few decades.
"When we give these presentations (on Kelly Space), people come up to us and say, 'That's great. When do I get to go?'" said Robert Davis, the company's chief executive officer.
"I think there's been some epic event – I don't even know what the event was – that has facilitated the ability to discuss in groups ... the idea of space tourism."
The folks at Kelly Space have made allowances for the new interest in space tourism, but they haven't made a leap of faith off the tightrope. Officials there sent informational materials to would-be tourists like the billionaire Branson, and have been more willing to discuss the possibilities with media than in years past. But they haven't changed their sales pitch to potential investors, Davis says.
"We don't celebrate (tourism) in talks with investors. They're going to ask a lot of questions that we can't answer (yet). When you talk about carrying people for revenue, now you get into a whole new licensing question and insurance questions," Davis said.
However, if the investor brings up space tourism, Kelly Space is willing to talk about its long-term potential, he says.
Davis believes current projects like the International Space Station and the advent of cheaper space launches through reusable spacecraft could lead to early space trips for Branson types. But ultimately, the infrastructure will have to be there before anyone can sell it, he says.
Even then, aerospace companies probably won't dominate the space tourism field, Davis says.
"I believe success in space tourism will be brought about by people who are not in the space industry," but rather in hospitality and entertainment, he said.
Kelly Space plans to stay its course, remaining focused on satellite launches and its current NASA contracts to study space transportation issues. Davis says he believes Iridium will probably be restructured and continue operating. Even if Iridium doesn't survive, its 66 satellites are too great an asset for others in the space race like Motorola – the owner of Kelly Space's contract and Iridium's top investor – to ignore, he says.
"I think it's reasonable our contract with Motorola will, in one way or another, be used," he said.
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Gray Scott, who hopes to outbid Branson for his seat someday, can be reached at (909) 980-7330, ext. 26. His e-mail address is grays@pe.net.
Originally published in The Business Press 08/23/99